Industry experts warn the Iran–US / Middle East crisis is raising construction costs and delaying projects in Nigeria — but here’s the honest part they admitted themselves: much of it is panic, not a real cost jump yet. The genuine mechanism is real, though — Nigeria imports steel and finishing materials, and global shocks since COVID have already driven reinforcement (rebar) from about ₦150,000 to over ₦500,000 per tonne. What it means for you: build costs stay volatile, so budget a bigger contingency, consider joint ventures to share risk, and don’t panic-buy or panic-freeze on rumours. (Current as of July 2026.)
You may have seen the headline — “Iran–US war hurting Nigeria’s real estate.” If you’re about to build, that’s alarming. So let’s do what we always do: separate the real risk from the noise, using what the experts actually said, and translate it into what it means for your money.
What the experts actually said
At a webinar hosted by the International Real Estate Federation (FIABCI) Nigeria and Fortren & Company on the “Impact of Middle East Crisis on Africa’s Real Estate and Construction Sector,” senior figures gave a more nuanced picture than the headline suggests.
Gbenga Olaniyan, Chairman of Estate Links, made the key point bluntly: a lot of the current movement is panic, not fundamentals. “From the day the Strait of Hormuz was closed… immediately prices started going up,” he said — even among people producing locally. Buyers are slowing down, negotiations are taking longer, and more deals are being done as joint ventures instead of outright purchases to share risk. His emphasis: much of it is fear from buyers, “as against the actual need for cost increases.”
Worth knowing: When experts say the price pressure is “panic,” that’s a signal, not just reassurance. Panic-driven price spikes tend to ease when the fear does — which means rushing to buy materials or lock a deal at a fear-inflated price can cost you. Calm buyers do better than scared ones.
The real mechanism — why Nigeria is exposed
The deeper reason isn’t this one crisis; it’s that Nigerian construction leans heavily on imported inputs, so every global shock ripples through. Ogunniran Hakeem, CEO of Eximia Realty, traced the chain: COVID disrupted supply from China (the world’s supply-chain hub), then the Russia–Ukraine war hit steel sourcing, and now the Middle East adds fresh uncertainty. His concrete example is the one to remember.
| Reinforcement (rebar) price per tonne | Period |
|---|---|
| ~₦150,000 | Mid-COVID |
| ~₦500,000 | Post-Ukraine spike (alarm raised) |
| Higher still | Since then, into 2026 |
That’s the honest story: the trend of rising material costs is real and years in the making, but pinning a fresh spike on the Iran–US crisis specifically is, by the experts’ own account, partly panic. There’s also a currency angle — Hakeem warned that prolonged Middle East disruption could dent diaspora remittances, a major funding source for Nigerian property.
What it means for your build budget
Whether the cause is fundamentals or fear, your job is the same: build a budget that survives volatility. Practical moves:
| Risk | What to do |
|---|---|
| Material prices swing mid-build | Add a bigger contingency (10–15%+), and buy key materials in stages, not all at peak-panic |
| Capital tied up alone | Consider a joint venture to share risk — the pros are already doing this |
| FX / remittance uncertainty (diaspora) | Don’t over-commit foreign income to a fixed naira budget; keep a buffer |
| Panic pricing | Get 2–3 quotes; don’t accept “prices are going up tomorrow” pressure at face value |
This is exactly why we track real, current figures rather than reacting to headlines — see our construction cost tracker for the latest material prices, and our honest take on whether Nigerian land is a good investment in 2026.
Watch out: Sellers and material dealers love a crisis headline — it’s the perfect excuse to push prices and rush you. “Buy now before the war makes it worse” is a sales tactic. Verify current prices independently before you accept any increase.
Building in 2026? Budget on real numbers, not headlines. Get our free checklist and track the actual costs that decide whether your project finishes.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Iran–US crisis really making building more expensive in Nigeria?
Partly — but industry experts say much of the current price pressure is panic rather than a real cost increase. The underlying trend of rising imported-material costs is real and predates this crisis; this event mostly adds uncertainty and fear.
How much have steel prices risen in Nigeria?
Reinforcement (rebar) went from about ₦150,000 per tonne mid-COVID to over ₦500,000 after the Russia–Ukraine spike, and higher since. It shows how exposed Nigerian construction is to global shocks, because so much material is imported.
Should I rush to buy building materials now?
Generally no. If price spikes are panic-driven, they often ease as fear fades. Get multiple quotes, buy in stages, and don’t let “prices rise tomorrow” pressure force a peak-price purchase.
How does this affect diaspora buyers?
Beyond material costs, prolonged global disruption can affect exchange rates and diaspora remittances. If you’re funding a build from abroad, keep a currency buffer and avoid locking your whole budget at today’s rate.
Source: FIABCI Nigeria / Fortren & Company webinar reporting via The Punch (27 July 2026), with figures attributed to the quoted experts. Material prices vary by supplier and week — verify current rates before budgeting. Last updated: July 2026. Journalists and researchers may cite this with attribution to LandsofNigeria.com.
